While the PC industry has hit its worst sales slump in more than a decade, its notebook computer segment keeps growing, impervious to the slowdown in technology spending.
Now, breakthroughs in mobile microprocessors and wireless technology promise to spark a leap forward in notebook computing, which some analysts say could make the desktop PC obsolete or at least topple its dominant position in computing.
Monday, Intel is set to announce a new line of Pentium microprocessors aimed at notebook computer makers and based on new semiconductor technologies and chip architectures. These microprocessors, named the Pentium III-M series, are considered more efficient than regular Pentiums, which have .18 micron circuits. The new chips have more transistors because of their smaller .13 micron circuits.
Furthermore, the new Intel chips will offer a power-management technology called "SpeedStep" which reduces clock speed and voltage automatically while the notebook runs on battery power. The feature allows notebooks to increase performance only when needed, thus conserving battery power.
Intel claims these design improvements will give notebooks unprecedented performance and longer battery life. The new microprocessors will produce less heat, allowing smaller computers more room for other components.
"Every leading PC maker who designs ultra-portable notebooks has embraced Intel low-power processors and is introducing a variety of exciting new systems based on Intel products," said Don MacDonald, marketing director of the Intel mobile platforms group. "Mobile PCs based on Intel low-power processors deliver the best combination of performance, portability, and longer battery life, so buying a smaller notebook won't mean sacrificing performance."
Intel is expected to announce five new Pentium III-M clock speeds, including 866 MHz, 933 MHz, 1 GHz, 1.06 GHz, and 1.13 GHz.
Computer makers including Compaq Computer, Dell Computer, Gateway, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Sony are expected to unveil Pentium III-M notebooks at Intel's Monday launch event.
Smaller, better-performing notebooks that don't run out of battery power should accelerate the trend toward portable computing at the cost of desktop sales, analysts say.
Though PC sales have fallen a dismal 8 percent worldwide this year, that decline was concentrated in desktop sales, according to a June report from research firm IDC. In fact, notebook computer sales worldwide showed slight growth in the same period and are predicted to continue growing into the foreseeable future, according to the report.
"The PC market is shrinking while the notebook market is growing," said Tim Scannell, an industry analyst with research firm Mobile Insights. "It's really a sign of things to come for the computing industry."
The strongest growth in notebook sales has come from corporations.
With notebook computing power now on par with the average desktop PC, many companies are opting to buy notebooks instead of replacing their offices' aging PCs.
"A lot of enterprises are replacing their PCs with notebooks, because they're just as powerful and you can take them out in the field," said Scannell. "In the office of the future, everyone will have notebooks."
Furthermore, most notebooks in production today are compatible with wireless technologies like Bluetooth, a short-range wireless standard, and with high-speed RF networks that are expected to replace Ethernet in offices. Industry watchers predict that once these wireless networks permeate homes, offices, and public places, notebooks will become even more prevalent.
"When people have a wireless notebook with good battery life, that basically becomes your portfolio and some day may reduce or eliminate the need for alternative devices," said Robert Morris, vice president of personal systems at IBM. "It may be all you need because you're always connected."
Whether notebooks will be the only electronic devices people will need remains to be seen. But most computer makers are betting on a mobile future. Dell is directing more funding away from its desktop units to its mobile divisions, and it expects other firms to do the same.
"People are moving to mobile computing and we've seen studies that range from 30 to 40 percent productivity enhancements from having a portable computer compared to a desktop," said Anthony Bonadera, director of Latitude product marketing at Dell. "This is now clear to everyone and we aren't going to ignore this."
